Leveraging Artificial Intelligence for Real-Time Public Health Projections: A Case Study on the Mpox Outbreak
In today's fast-paced digital world, access to real-time data and the ability to analyze and project future trends has become not only easier but also more critical. With the rise of advanced artificial intelligence (AI) tools like ChatGPT, what once required complex algorithms and extensive expertise is now within reach of anyone with a basic understanding of the technology. In this blog post, I’ll walk you through how I used AI, in less than 15 minutes, to analyze the ongoing Mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) outbreak, specifically focusing on the new Clade Ib strain, and how I projected the virus's potential future spread using data from a simple news article.
The Context: A Growing Public Health Crisis
The Clade Ib strain of Mpox has recently emerged as a significant public health concern, particularly in Central and East Africa. With cases rising rapidly in countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) have raised alarms about the potential for this outbreak to spiral out of control.
As of August 8, 2024, over 14,000 cases and 511 deaths had been reported in the DRC alone. The situation is exacerbated by a severe shortage of vaccines—Africa CDC estimates that 10 million doses are needed, but only 200,000 are currently available. With the virus spreading at an alarming rate, the question arises: how bad could this get?
Using AI to Project Future Cases
To answer this question, I turned to ChatGPT, an AI tool developed by OpenAI that allows users to process information, analyze data, and even make projections based on available data. Here’s how I approached the problem:
Data Collection: I gathered the most recent statistics on the Mpox outbreak from news articles and official health organization reports. These included the number of cases, deaths, and the weekly growth rate of infections.
Exponential Growth Rate Calculation: Using the data, I calculated the week-over-week growth rate of the virus, which ranged between 7% and 10%. This growth rate is critical in understanding how quickly the virus is spreading.
Projection Modeling: By applying this growth rate to the existing number of cases, I was able to project the number of infections over the next few weeks and months. For example, I estimated that the number of cases could increase from 887 to approximately 1,704 within two months—a nearly two-fold increase.
The Power of AI in Public Health
This exercise illustrates the power of AI in public health analysis. With tools like ChatGPT, it's possible to take data from a simple news article and quickly turn it into actionable insights. Here's why this is so important:
Real-Time Analysis: AI allows for the immediate processing of data, enabling health professionals, researchers, and even concerned citizens to understand the potential impact of a public health crisis as it unfolds.
Accessibility: You don’t need to be a data scientist to perform these analyses. AI tools have democratized data processing, making it accessible to a wider audience. This can lead to more informed discussions and quicker decision-making at all levels of society.
Proactive Measures: By projecting the future spread of a virus like Mpox, public health authorities can take proactive measures to contain the outbreak. This could include increasing vaccine production, implementing stricter containment protocols, or even declaring a public health emergency.
The Bigger Picture: AI as a Force for Good
The Mpox outbreak is just one example of how AI can be leveraged to address global challenges. From climate change to economic forecasting, the potential applications of AI are vast and varied. However, the ease with which we can now access and analyze data also comes with responsibility. It’s essential that we use these tools ethically, ensuring that the insights we generate are used to promote the greater good.
In conclusion, artificial intelligence has the potential to revolutionize how we respond to public health crises. By making complex data analysis accessible to all, AI tools like ChatGPT are empowering individuals and organizations to make informed decisions faster than ever before. As we continue to face global challenges, from pandemics to environmental disasters, the ability to quickly and accurately predict future outcomes will be crucial in our efforts to build a safer, healthier world.
Research
The rapidly escalating outbreak of Mpox, particularly the Clade Ib strain, is currently affecting several countries across Central and East Africa. Advanced analysis, including data-driven insights obtained through the use of ChatGPT, reveals a concerning trend in the spread of this virus.
Current Situation Analysis
As of August 8, 2024, the Clade Ib strain of Mpox has shown a significant increase in cases, with over 14,000 reported infections and 511 deaths in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) alone. This strain has since spread to neighboring countries, including Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, and Uganda, indicating a troubling potential for further regional and global transmission.
The virus is spreading at an exponential week-over-week growth rate of 7-10%, which is a critical indicator of its rapid spread. Projections based on this growth rate estimate that the number of cases could increase from 887 at the end of the 8th week to approximately 1,704 cases within the next 8 weeks. This doubling of cases in just two months highlights the severity of the outbreak if the current trend continues.
Vaccine Shortage and Urgency
The Africa CDC has indicated that the continent urgently requires 10 million vaccine doses to combat the outbreak, yet only 200,000 doses are currently available. This severe shortfall in vaccine supply presents a significant risk to the affected populations and greatly hampers efforts to control the spread of the virus.
Given the Clade Ib strain's higher fatality rate, estimated between 3% and 10%, and its capacity to cause widespread severe illness, especially among children, the current trajectory of the outbreak poses a clear and present danger not only to the African continent but potentially to other regions as well.
Importance of Declaring a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)
The escalating nature of this outbreak, combined with the limited access to vaccines and treatments, necessitates an urgent and coordinated global response. Declaring the Clade Ib Mpox outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) would:
Mobilize Global Resources: Unlock critical funding and resources necessary to ramp up vaccine production, distribution, and access across the affected regions.
Facilitate International Collaboration: Enable greater coordination among member states, international health organizations, and NGOs to implement effective containment and mitigation strategies.
Enhance Public Awareness and Preparedness: Raise global awareness and encourage proactive measures to prevent further spread, including public health campaigns and travel advisories.
Accelerate Research and Development: Spur innovation and research into more effective vaccines, treatments, and diagnostics that can be rapidly deployed to combat the virus.
Conclusion
The Clade Ib Mpox outbreak represents an imminent threat that requires immediate international attention. Without decisive action, there is a significant risk of widespread morbidity and mortality, not only in Africa but potentially on a global scale. The situation calls for urgent measures to control the outbreak and prevent a larger catastrophe.
Supporting Data and Charts (ChatGPT shared link): https://chatgpt.com/share/f0d7767d-3e39-464c-82e1-6d2e15fa46c2
Screenshots below:
By leveraging AI, the public can communicate studies conducted with a methodology worth reviewing to government officials or people in charge. I have done this by contacting the World Health Organization (WHO) and Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the WHO. Retweets are not endorsements; I am sharing the conclusions of my research in the hope of prompting swifter action to proactively address the critical need for government intervention, such as preventing a possible next worldwide pandemic.
