Navigating the 7-Year Tribulation and AI's Impact in a Changing Political Landscape
Introduction
Whether you believe in the Bible or not, 2024 could mark the first year of the seven-year tribulation, which, according to Christian eschatology, is a period of intense hardship and suffering that precedes the Second Coming of Christ. It involves the rise of the Antichrist, global conflicts, natural disasters, and widespread persecution. In the context of the rapid rise of artificial intelligence and the possibility of Donald Trump becoming president in the next election, let’s ask the AI to come up with some projections of what could occur.
A Conversation with a Friend
Recently, I had a profound conversation with a friend that underscored the anxiety and concern many people feel about the future. This dialogue touched on the potential repercussions of Donald Trump's re-election, the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence, and the implications for our democracy and society. Here are some key excerpts from our conversation:
Political Uncertainty
My friend expressed a deep concern about what will happen to America if Donald Trump gets re-elected, wondering if it could signify the end of democracy as we know it. This fear stems from the potential for drastic policy changes and the undermining of democratic institutions. Additionally, I voiced my concerns regarding the Republicans abstaining from voting on Senate Bill 1047, which aimed to address AI ethics and labor impacts, potentially leaving workers unprotected and increasing the risks associated with rapid technological advancements.
Partisan Responses: Democrats supported the bill, while Republican members abstained from voting.
Seven-Year Tribulation
We discussed the concept of the seven-year tribulation, a time of unprecedented suffering and turmoil. I mentioned my belief that 2024 could mark the beginning of this period, irrespective of one's religious beliefs.
AI and Job Displacement
The conversation also highlighted the rapid rise of AI and its impact on the job market. The fears of job displacement and economic instability are compounded by the lack of comprehensive regulatory measures to address these challenges.
Impeachment Distractions
We touched on recent political moves, such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's introduction of articles of impeachment against Supreme Court Justices, which my friend dismissed as distractions from more pressing issues.
Economic Decline
The dialogue concluded with reflections on the country's economic decline and the hope for better governance to steer the nation through these turbulent times.
AI's Role in the Coming Years
Given the context of AI's rapid development, let's explore some potential scenarios for the next seven years:
Year 1 (2024)
Initial Shock and Adaptation: Many industries begin to feel the substantial effects of AI. Approximately 80% of the workforce experiences changes in at least 10% of their job tasks due to AI technologies, with around 19% seeing 50% of their tasks impacted. Sectors like customer service, office support, and food services face notable automation and job displacement (OpenAI).
A Published Working Paper by OpenAI, OpenResearch, and the University of Pennsylvania titled: "GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models" reveals several key insights about the potential implications of large language models (LLMs) on the U.S. labor market. The study finds that approximately 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while around 19% of workers might see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. The impacts span across all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software.
The research highlights that LLMs exhibit traits of general-purpose technologies (GPTs), indicating significant economic, social, and policy implications. LLMs are not confined to industries with higher recent productivity growth, and their influence could extend to a broad range of occupations. The study underscores the importance of integrating LLMs with larger systems to maximize their impact and emphasizes that their potential is significantly enhanced when considering complementary technologies.
The paper also discusses the methodological approach, which involved a new rubric assessing occupations based on their alignment with LLM capabilities, integrating both human expertise and GPT-4 classifications. The findings suggest that roles reliant on programming and writing skills are more susceptible to LLM exposure, while those requiring science and critical thinking skills are less likely to be impacted.
Overall, the working paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the transformative potential of LLMs on the labor market, emphasizing their general-purpose nature and the extensive implications for various economic sectors.
It is important to note that this research was published on March 17th, 2023, revised on August 21st, 2023, and does not take into consideration the latest capabilities of ChatGPT-4o or other language models such as Llama 3, released by Meta/Facebook in April 2024, Google’s Gemini 1.5 Flash released in May 2024, nor upcoming AI-generated text-to-video speech models scheduled for release, such as Sora by OpenAI or VEO by Google, which could impact jobs in the cinematography industry, advertising, animation, and beyond.
Kevin: With the context below and the content of the research, provide how many jobs could be impacted by the release of GPTs in the United States. Do some research online to find out how many people from the main fields of labor could be impacted.
ChatGPT:
To understand the magnitude of this impact, we need to look at the total number of workers in the U.S. According to recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the total number of employed individuals in the U.S. is approximately 164.5 million as of 2024 (BLS) (BLS).
Using these figures:
80% of the workforce (having at least 10% of their tasks impacted) translates to about 131.6 million workers.
19% of the workforce (having at least 50% of their tasks impacted) translates to approximately 31.2 million workers.
Here’s a breakdown of potential impacts in key sectors:
Healthcare and Social Assistance:
This sector employs around 22.4 million people (BLS).
With significant exposure due to administrative and documentation tasks, a considerable portion of these jobs could see changes.
2. Professional and Business Services:
Employing about 22.2 million people (BLS), this sector includes jobs that are highly susceptible to automation through LLMs, such as those in legal, accounting, and consulting services.
3. Retail Trade:
Employing about 15.5 million people (BLS), this sector could see impacts primarily in customer service and inventory management tasks.
4. Manufacturing:
With approximately 12.8 million employees (BLS), the manufacturing sector might experience changes in logistics, quality control, and supply chain management tasks.
5. Financial Activities:
This sector employs about 9 million people (BLS), where tasks related to data analysis, financial reporting, and customer interactions could be significantly affected.
By integrating LLMs into these industries, tasks related to data processing, customer interaction, and other repetitive or document-heavy processes could be automated or significantly enhanced, leading to substantial changes in job roles and productivity.
Kevin: If 31.2 million jobs were to be replaced by LLMs, what would be the unemployement rate? Consider the current unemployement rate as of Juen 2024.
As of June 2024, the total labor force in the U.S. is approximately 164.5 million people, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, equating to about 6.8 million unemployed individuals (BLS).
If 31.2 million jobs were to be replaced by LLMs, we need to add this number to the current number of unemployed individuals to calculate the new unemployment rate. Here's the calculation:
Current number of unemployed individuals: 6.8 million
Jobs replaced by LLMs: 31.2 million
Total unemployed individuals: 6.8 million + 31.2 million = 38 million
Next, we calculate the new unemployment rate by dividing the total number of unemployed individuals by the total labor force:
Unemployment Rate= Total Unemployed Individuals / Total Labor Force × 100
Unemployment Rate= 164.5 million / 38 million × 100 ≈ 23.1%
Therefore, if 31.2 million jobs were to be replaced by LLMs, the unemployment rate would increase to approximately 23.1%.
Year 2 (2025)
Policy and Regulatory Uncertainty: With Trump's administration prioritizing economic growth and deregulation, there is less emphasis on AI regulation. Senate Bill 1047, which aimed to address AI ethics and labor impacts, faces further delays due to Republican abstention from voting. Companies experience freedom to innovate without stringent regulatory constraints, leading to rapid AI adoption but increasing risks of job displacement and ethical concerns (McKinsey & Company).
Year 3 (2026)
Economic Restructuring and Resistance: AI integration accelerates across various sectors, causing significant job restructuring. Traditional labor unions and worker advocacy groups push back against unregulated AI adoption, demanding better protections and retraining programs. The administration’s focus on economic growth through deregulation intensifies debates on balancing innovation with worker rights (McKinsey & Company) (RAND Policy Analysis).
Year 4 (2027)
Public and Private Sector Clashes: As AI technologies become more embedded in everyday business practices, the clash between the need for innovation and the protection of jobs intensifies. The administration's focus on economic deregulation leads to tensions between tech companies and labor organizations. Reskilling programs are sporadic and largely driven by private sector initiatives without coordinated federal support.
Year 5 (2028)
Social Unrest and Legislative Pushback: The unchecked growth of AI results in significant job displacement in various sectors, leading to social unrest and increased calls for government intervention. Public sentiment shifts towards demanding more comprehensive AI regulations and worker protections. The administration faces mounting pressure to address these concerns amid rising unemployment and economic inequality (AI Index).
In a recent paper published by Stanford University titled “Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2024,” the significant potential for AI to disrupt labor markets is underscored, with substantial portions of the workforce likely to be affected.
Kevin:
What does the attached "Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2024" report mention in regards to job displacement due to AI and socio-economic concerns that could lead to economic unstability or social unrest?
ChatGPT:
The "Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2024" mentions several concerns regarding job displacement due to AI and the socio-economic impacts that could lead to economic instability or social unrest. Here are the key points from the report:
AI Job Impact Expectations:
A survey by Ipsos found that 36% of global respondents fear that AI might replace their job within the next five years, while 57% believe AI will change how they perform their current job in the same timeframe (BLS).
Decrease in AI-Related Job Postings:
In the United States, AI-related job postings decreased from 2.0% in 2022 to 1.6% in 2023. This decline is attributed to fewer postings from leading AI firms and a shift in the occupational mix of these companies, focusing more on operational roles and less on tech roles like software developers and data scientists (BLS).
Economic Disparities and Labor Disruption:
The introduction of automation technologies, including LLMs (Large Language Models), has been linked to heightened economic disparity and labor disruption. These disruptions could lead to adverse downstream effects, necessitating societal and policy preparedness to address the potential economic impacts (BLS).
Survey on AI's Workforce Impact:
A McKinsey survey revealed that 43% of business professionals expect AI to lead to a decrease in the number of employees in their organizations within the next three years, while 30% expect little to no change, and 15% anticipate an increase in the number of employees (BLS).
5. Global Concerns about AI:
The Global Public Opinion on Artificial Intelligence (GPO-AI) survey indicated that 49% of respondents were concerned about AI's impact on jobs. This concern was among the top issues, alongside AI misuse for nefarious purposes and potential violations of citizens' privacy (BLS).
6. Potential for Economic Instability:
The report highlights that economic disruption from AI technologies can lead to social unrest if not properly managed. The need for policy interventions, such as reforms in education, worker training, and safety net programs, is emphasized to mitigate the risks associated with widespread AI adoption (BLS).
In summary, the report underscores the significant potential for AI to disrupt labor markets, with substantial portions of the workforce likely to be affected. The socio-economic impacts of such disruptions could lead to instability if not addressed through proactive policy measures and societal preparedness.
AI beats humans on some tasks, but not on all.
AI has surpassed human performance on several benchmarks, including some in image classification, visual reasoning, and English understanding. Yet it trails behind on more complex tasks like competition-level mathematics, visual commonsense reasoning and planning.
The United States leads China, the EU, and the U.K. as the leading source of top AI models.
In 2023, 61 notable AI models originated from U.S.-based institutions, far outpacing the European Union’s 21 and China’s 15.
The number of AI regulations in the United States sharply increases.
The number of AI-related regulations in the U.S. has risen significantly in the past year and over the last five years. In 2023, there were 25 AI-related regulations, up from just one in 2016. Last year alone, the total number of AI-related regulations grew by 56.3%.
People across the globe are more cognizant of AI’s potential impact—and more nervous.
A survey from Ipsos shows that, over the last year, the proportion of those who think AI will dramatically affect their lives in the next three to five years has increased from 60% to 66%. Moreover, 52% express nervousness toward AI products and services, marking a 13 percentage point rise from 2022. In America, Pew data suggests that 52% of Americans report feeling more concerned than excited about AI, rising from 38% in 2022.
Kevin:
From the following summary, find out how many AI-related regulations passed and were enacted. Alsoprovide updated amounts as of June 2024 by doing some research online. Context: The number of AI regulations in the United States sharply increases. The number of AI-related regulations in the U.S. has risen significantly in the past year and over the last five years. In 2023, there were 25 AI-related regulations, up from just one in 2016. Last year alone, the total number of AI-related regulations grew by 56.3%.
ChatGPT:
As of 2023, the number of AI-related regulations in the United States increased significantly, with 25 regulations enacted, marking a substantial rise from just one in 2016. This reflects a growing legislative focus on managing the risks and leveraging the benefits of AI technologies (World Economic Forum) (NCSL).
For the first half of 2024, numerous AI-related bills and regulations have continued to be introduced and enacted at both federal and state levels. Colorado enacted the comprehensive Colorado AI Act in May 2024, focusing on automated decision-making systems and requiring developers and deployers to avoid discrimination (Home | White & Case LLP). Additionally, more than 40 states introduced AI bills in 2023, with several states, such as Connecticut and Texas, adopting statutes that establish working groups to ensure state agencies’ AI use does not result in unlawful discrimination (Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP).
To provide updated figures for June 2024, it's essential to note the growing legislative activity:
Federal Regulations: Multiple federal laws related to AI have been proposed, including the AI Research Innovation and Accountability Act, which aims to increase transparency and accountability in high-risk AI systems (Home | White & Case LLP).
State Regulations: States continue to introduce a substantial number of bills aimed at regulating AI. In 2024, the focus has been on ensuring AI systems do not perpetuate discrimination and addressing consumer privacy concerns (NCSL) (Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP).
Thus, the total number of AI-related regulations passed and enacted in the U.S. has significantly increased, reflecting an ongoing effort to address the socio-economic impacts and potential for economic instability or social unrest due to AI advancements.
Kevin:
Are any of the AI-related regulation bills related to protecting workers from job displacement due to AI?
ChatGPT:
Yes, there are AI-related regulation bills that specifically aim to protect workers from job displacement due to AI. Key measures include:
President Biden’s Executive Order on AI:
Issued on October 30, 2023, this executive order addresses job displacement by emphasizing the development of training programs to equip workers with skills needed in an AI-driven economy. It includes directives to ensure responsible use of AI in the workplace, prevent algorithmic discrimination, and support worker retraining and upskilling (DOL Blog) (Mintz).
2. National AI Initiative Act of 2020:
This act includes provisions to support AI-related education and workforce development programs. The goal is to prepare the workforce for the integration of AI systems, ensuring that workers can transition to new roles that emerge as AI technologies advance (Mintz).
3. Colorado AI Act:
Enacted in May 2024, this comprehensive legislation focuses on automated decision-making systems. It requires developers and deployers to use reasonable care to avoid discrimination, which indirectly protects workers by ensuring fair treatment and consideration in the face of AI-driven changes (Home | White & Case LLP).
Laws/Regulations directly regulating AI (the “AI Regulations”)
Currently, there is no comprehensive federal legislation or regulations in the US that regulate the development of AI or specifically prohibit or restrict their use. However, there are existing federal laws that concern AI albeit with limited application. A non-exhaustive list of key examples includes:
Federal Aviation Administration Reauthorization Act, which includes language requiring review of AI in aviation.1
National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019, which directed the Department of Defense to undertake various AI-related activities, including appointing a coordinator to oversee AI activities.2
National AI Initiative Act of 2020, which focused on expanding AI research and development and created the National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Office that is responsible for “overseeing and implementing the US national AI strategy.”3
Nevertheless, various frameworks and guidelines exist to guide the regulation of AI, including:
The White House Executive Order on AI (titled Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence) which is aimed at numerous sectors, and is premised on the understanding that “[h]arnessing AI for good and realizing its myriad benefits requires mitigating its substantial risks.” 4 The executive order focuses on federal agencies and developers of foundation models, mandates the development of federal standards, and requires developers of the most powerful AI systems to share safety tests results and other critical information with the U.S. government. The Executive Order also calls on the Department of Commerce to issue guidance for content authentication and watermarking to label AI-generated content.
The White House Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights, which asserts guidance around equitable access and use of AI systems.5 The AI Bill of Rights provides five principles and associated practices to help guide the design, use and deployment of “automated systems” including safe and effective systems; algorithmic discrimination and protection; data privacy; notice and explanation; and human alternatives, consideration and fallbacks
Several leading AI companies (e.g., Adobe, Amazon, IBM, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Open AI, and Salesforce) have voluntarily committed to “help move toward safe, secure, and transparent development of AI technology.”6 These companies committed to internal/external security testing of AI systems before release, sharing information on managing AI risks and investing in safeguards.
The Federal Communications Commission issued a declaratory ruling stating that the restrictions on the use of “artificial or pre-recorded voice” messages in the 1990s era Telephone Consumer Protection Act include AI technologies that generate human voices, demonstrating that regulatory agencies will apply existing law to AI.7
Status of AI- specific legislation
On September 12, 2023, the US Senate held public hearings regarding AI8, which laid out potential forthcoming AI regulations. Possible legislation could include requiring licensing and creating a new federal regulatory agency. Additionally, US lawmakers held closed-door listening sessions with AI developers, technology leaders and civil society groups on September 13, 2023 in a continued push to understand and address AI.9
There are several federal proposed laws related to AI. A non-exhaustive list of key examples includes:
The SAFE Innovation AI Framework,10 which is a bipartisan set of guidelines for AI developers, companies and policymakers. This is not a law, but rather a set of principles to encourage federal law-making on AI
The REAL Political Advertisements Act,11 which aims to regulate generative AI in political advertisements
The Stop Spying Bosses Act,12 which aims to regulate employers surveilling employees with machine learning and AI techniques
The Draft No FAKES Act,13 which would protect voice and visual likenesses of individuals from unauthorized recreations from Generative AI
The AI Research Innovation and Accountability Act,14 which calls for greater transparency, accountability and security in AI, while establishing a framework for AI innovation. It would create an enforceable testing and evaluation standard for high-risk AI systems and require companies that use high-risk AI systems to produce transparency reports. It also empowers the National Institute of Standards and Technology to issue sector-specific recommendations to regulate them
State legislatures have also introduced a substantial number of bills aimed at regulating AI, notably:
On May 17, 2024, Colorado enacted the first comprehensive US AI legislation, the Colorado AI Act. The Act creates duties for developers and for those that deploy AI. The Act focuses on automated decision-making systems and defines a covered high-risk AI system as one that "when deployed, makes, or is a substantial factor in making a consequential decision." There is a specific focus on bias and discrimination, and developer and deployers must use reasonable care to avoid discrimination via AI systems that make, or are a substantial factor in making a consequential decision. The Act will go into effect in 2026
The California Consumer Privacy Act,15 which contains provisions on the use of automated decision-making tools. Additionally, the California Privacy Protection Agency released draft rules on these provisions16 governing consumer notice, access and opt-out rights with respect to automated decision-making technology, which the rules define broadly. The regulations are still being finalized but will likely cover expanded uses of AI. The draft rules, which are not expected to be formalized until sometime in 2024, would require significant disclosure about businesses’ implementation and use of ADMT
More than 40 state AI bills were introduced in 2023, with Connecticut17 and Texas18 actually adopting statutes. Both of those enacted statutes establish state working groups to assess state agencies’ use of AI systems to ensure they do not result in unlawful discrimination.
4. Workforce Development Provisions:
The Senate AI Working Group’s roadmap emphasizes workforce development, including implementing training programs to help workers transition to new job roles created by AI technologies. This includes support for re-skilling and upskilling initiatives to mitigate the risks of job displacement (Mayer Brown).
SENATE AI WORKING GROUP RELEASES ROADMAP FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE POLICY.
On May 15, 2024, the Bipartisan Senate AI Working Group—Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Senators Mike Rounds (R-SD), Todd Young (R-IN), and Martin Heinrich (D-NM)—released a report titled "Driving U.S. Innovation in Artificial Intelligence: A Roadmap for Artificial Intelligence Policy in the United States Senate" outlining a comprehensive framework aimed at addressing the multifaceted opportunities and risks presented by artificial intelligence (“AI”) technologies. The roadmap, a result of educational briefings and nine AI Insight Forums, emphasizes collaboration across party lines and public/private partnership to ensure that AI development is both innovative and ethical.
PRIORITIES
Key policy priorities listed in the roadmap include:
Promoting AI Innovation: Working to ensure that institutions of higher education and companies of varying sizes are able to compete in AI innovation, including by funding the National AI Research Resource.
Investment in Research and Development: Prioritizing US funding for AI research and development to maintain global competitiveness and spur technological advancements. The roadmap encourages at least $32 billion per year for non-defense AI innovation, as proposed by the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence’s report.
Workforce Development: Implementing training programs to equip workers with the skills needed to thrive in an AI-driven economy while also addressing potential job displacement.
Development and Enforcement of AI Laws and Guidelines: Establishing ethical guidelines and ensuring enforcement of existing laws addressing the responsible development and deployment of AI technologies, including considerations of bias, testing, privacy, transparency, and explainability.
Intellectual Property: Evaluating whether there is a need for legislation that protects, consistent with First Amendment principles, against the unauthorized use of a person’s name, image, likeness, and voice, as it relates to AI.
Elections/Democracy – Protecting the Public: Addressing the challenges manipulated technologies, including “deepfakes,” pose to election content and nonconsensual intimate images and studying the impacts of AI on content creators.
Privacy and Liability: Recognizing that privacy issues and safety should be addressed with high impact AI and expressing support for a federal data privacy law to address this topic more fully.
Managing AI-Related Risks: Supporting the development and standardization of risk testing and evaluation methodologies and mechanisms, including red-teaming and commercial AI auditing.
National and Cyber Security: Leveraging emerging AI technologies to bolster national security and address national security threats, risks, and opportunities for AI.
These legislative efforts reflect a growing recognition of the need to protect workers from the potential adverse effects of AI on employment, while also leveraging AI's benefits to enhance job quality and create new opportunities.
Year 6 (2029)
Legislative Adjustments and Economic Recovery: In response to growing public discontent, bipartisan efforts emerge to pass new legislation aimed at mitigating the negative impacts of AI on the labor market. This includes incentives for companies to invest in reskilling programs and support for workers transitioning to new roles. The economy begins to stabilize as AI-driven productivity gains start to create new job opportunities in high-tech and renewable energy sectors (McKinsey & Company) (OpenAI).
Year 7 (2030)
Stabilization and Future Outlook: By 2030, AI is deeply integrated into the U.S. economy, with a more balanced approach to innovation and regulation. New jobs created by AI-driven industries begin to offset the losses in traditional sectors. The labor market finds a new equilibrium, with increased emphasis on continuous learning and adaptation to keep pace with technological advancements. The administration adopts a more nuanced stance on AI regulation, recognizing the need for both economic growth and worker protection (RAND Policy Analysis).
Throughout this period, the Trump administration's policies significantly influence the pace and nature of AI adoption and its impact on the labor market. Deregulation leads to rapid technological advancement but also exacerbates job displacement and social inequality, prompting eventual legislative and societal adjustments to address these challenges.
Conclusion
The conversation with my friend underscores the deep concerns many have about the future, especially with the potential re-election of Donald Trump and the rapid rise of AI. As we navigate these uncertain times, it is crucial to remain informed, engaged, and proactive in addressing the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. By doing so, we can work towards a future that balances technological innovation with ethical considerations and social well-being.
