The Ball is in Your Court
The following is my response to Republican Congressman Ralph Norman, serving the 5th District of South Carolina. I’ve also reached out to a representative with whom I spoke a couple of weeks ago over the phone, Democrat Congresswoman Brittany Pettersen, serving Colorado’s 7th District.
In a previous email conversation with his office, I was asked to provide documentation of my claims that the U.S. is currently experiencing workforce displacement due to the unchecked implementation of AI and automation, leading to an upcoming irreversible catastrophic labor crisis. Read my detailed analysis below for more information. The goal of my follow-up email is to provide sufficient evidence to prompt immediate government action from United States President Joe Biden to take the necessary steps to avoid an imminent societal collapse due to the destabilization of the American workforce.
Subject: Sounding the Alarm: Immediate Action Needed on AI Workforce Displacement
Email Content:
Dear Ms. Butler,
I hope this email finds you well.
Per your request, I am providing additional information based on data research I have conducted over the past six months. This information comes from reliable sources and includes accounts from myself, others in the industry, and the public from my social media accounts. Unfortunately, these accounts are not being discussed in the American news on TV due to significant financial influence from politicians and tech CEOs, which is silencing the current workforce crisis from public awareness.
The first thing I would like you to do is watch this compelling argumentative video regarding the negative impact that OpenAI’s next-gen AI video creator tool, Sora, could have on the workforce and the economy. It is four minutes long and provides a strong basis for the other arguments presented in the attached document.
Video link: https://vimeo.com/955094076
After watching the video, you will understand why AI needs to be regulated by the U.S. government immediately, as it is in other places around the world, such as Europe, India for instance, to avoid massive job displacement across multiple sectors and an unprecedented economic downturn.
The tool, Sora, was announced by OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman, to be released this year. However, as it is in beta version and most likely ready to be released imminently, the call to action for the U.S. would be to stop its public release immediately. Similar tools, such as Google’s version "Veo," announced just last month, also need to be stopped, along with any other tools with similar features. This requires immediate action and law enforcement from President Joe Biden.
If you have the time and are interested in understanding how these AI-generated video creator tools could potentially impact the work of 2,740,000 Americans, I invite you to watch the compelling 17-minute video below, where I thoroughly detail my data research and findings.
Video link: https://vimeo.com/954709887
Additionally, my research leveraging ChatGPT is available to the public via the following link:
ChatGPT Cinematography Industry Job Displacement Data Analytics Research:
https://chatgpt.com/share/47772d50-337b-4c78-9ecb-0d7441040c72
ChatGPT National Labor Market Job Displacement Preliminary Data Analytics Research:
https://chatgpt.com/share/5ffdeb4c-a165-4de2-b1a7-0f081d3f1325
ChatGPT National Labor Market Job Displacement Reverse Data Analytics Research:
https://chatgpt.com/share/a616bb0e-7adf-4f59-8ae6-91f14356f8a8
You will need a ChatGPT OpenAI account to view the conversation and research findings. Setting up an account is easy and can be done using a Gmail address. These AI-generated video creator tools, which American tech companies are planning to release to the public, could impact approximately 3,000,000 jobs in the cinematography industry and other fields reliant on video content creation. This does not account for the millions of other jobs in various sectors, such as the fast-food industry, which has been greatly impacted recently, especially in California, and the tech industry, which could also be rendered obsolete. As a data analyst for the past decade, I have seen how now AI can replicate my work, making my role obsolete in the long term. Future employers focused on profit are unlikely to hire someone at a six-figure salary when an AI tool can perform the same tasks for a $20/month subscription.
An article detailing my research done from the video above is available on my non-profit organization website Voice For Change Foundation at the following link:
Article: www.VoiceForChangeFoundation.org/advocacy/steve-jobs
As I did not want to overwhelm you with the amount of information, I have ensured that everything related to data analytics from reliable sources is included in the attached document. This document provides an overview of the projections for where the U.S. economy could be headed, which could potentially lead to an economic downturn. The Chief of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, stated back in January of this year that advanced economies could see 60% of their workforce displaced. According to a CNN article, this translates to jobs potentially "disappearing" and having a significant impact, leading advanced economies like the United States into an economic downturn and potential social unrest as people lose their jobs and struggle to afford food and shelter. Historically, this could be compared to the downfall of the Roman Empire, which failed to adapt, potentially marking a similar fate for the American Empire if this issue is not addressed immediately. The global economy would also be affected, making the fight for Ethical AI a top priority on President Joe Biden’s to-do list.
My claims above are based solely on data analytics. Recently, we have seen a decline in the number of new jobs created. According to a New York Times article from May 3rd of this year, “Employers added 175,000 positions in April, the Labor Department reported Friday, undershooting forecasts,” and an increase in jobs being replaced by AI. As a recent CNN article states, “The tech sector is pouring billions of dollars into AI. But it keeps laying off humans.”
For instance, a recent Forbes article stated that 65,000 jobs were lost to AI in April alone this year. This translates to an average of 2,100 families suffering from loss of income, healthcare, and an inability to afford necessities such as food and shelter every single day. I have experienced this myself over the past month, having to seek rental assistance due to facing homelessness. Despite my efforts, I could only find a $22/hour leasing agent position, which does not cover my living expenses. I have been unable to reenter the tech sector for the past 10 months due to companies streamlining their operations with AI, leading to market saturation and an increasing number of displaced workers also seeking employment. This situation is exacerbated by technology slowly replacing people's skill sets, creating a tsunami wave of job displacement. As the IMF's Chief recently stated, we are highly unprepared to deal with the job displacement issue.
What is about to unfold regarding the imminent workforce displacement issue in America is more than just a political matter. We can no longer view this country as divided, as it has been for decades between Democrats and Republicans. Instead, we must understand, as a collective body, that we need to do what’s right for the country to remain an economic superpower and a leader in the fight for Liberty, Equality, Individualism, Democracy, Nationalism, and now, Ethical AI. Let’s show the world an example to follow, rather than suffering from an economic decline and becoming a country moving from prosperity to chaos.
I, along with 341.7 million fellow Americans, look forward to your response, which I hope to share on my non-profit organization's website at www.VoiceForChangeFoundation.org/advocacy to keep everyone informed.
Hoping you have a great rest of your week.
Kind regards,
Kevin Bihan-Poudec | Advocate for Ethical AI and Workforce Preservation
I have also reached out to the office of Democrat Congresswoman Brittany Pettersen, Representative of Colorado’s 7th District which I had a call with a couple of weeks ago. Find a summary of my call here.
Email content:
Hi [Representative of Pettersen’s office],
I hope this email finds you well.
I would like to follow up regarding the call we had a couple of weeks ago.
I felt compelled to reach out and share my latest data analytics research results, which are quite alarming. With AI-generated text-to-video tools such as Sora by OpenAI and Veo by Google on the verge of being released to the public, we could experience a significant shift in labor demand in the cinematography industry, advertising, and beyond. Using artificial intelligence (ChatGPT), I estimated the number of video creators in the US, and it appears that up to 2,740,000 workers could be greatly impacted. These workers face becoming obsolete as the demand for their labor decreases due to the cost efficiency of employing AI tools.
The average Blockbuster movie budget in the US is roughly $150,000,000. Recently, Ashton Kutcher publicly announced that these tools will soon have the capability of creating 2-hour-long footage (currently only a few minutes long). As the technology advances at an exponential rate, it is not far-fetched to imagine that within a year or less, users could render their own movies by entering just a few keywords, similar to how I am writing to you now. It is unlikely that major studios and streaming platforms like Netflix will want to continue spending up to half a billion dollars on creating new movies to retain or attract subscribers when such a technology can produce movies of "motion picture" quality, as Ashton stated as a beta user.
Videos of his interview have been removed from multiple websites following backlash from people in the movie industry who understand that this technology could render their skills obsolete, much like ChatGPT has affected my role as a data analyst. AI can now perform data analysis in under a minute for a cost to a future employer of $20/month. It is expected that Sora will be similarly priced, making it more cost-effective than spending millions of dollars to produce new content. I foresee that if this tool is released to the public, platforms like Netflix might allow users to submit their own movies, with only the most interesting being selected for the platform, completely discarding the millions of Americans whose livelihoods depend on making such movies.
I wanted to share my data analytics findings with you and urge you to advocate for an immediate regulatory framework. We need to address these AI tools, similar to measures currently in place in Europe and India, where governments conduct pre-assessment studies to evaluate the impact of such tools on the workforce. It is imperative that we implement such measures in the US to prevent millions of Americans from losing their jobs, not only in the cinematography industry but also in tech.
Data Analytics Findings on the Impact of Unchecked Artificial Intelligence Release on the American Workforce:
https://www.voiceforchangefoundation.org/advocacy/usa-workforce-crisis-ai
A preliminary research study was conducted to examine the potential impact on the cinematography industry:
https://www.voiceforchangefoundation.org/advocacy/steve-jobs
I look forward to hearing back from you on this pressing issue.
Kind regards,
Kevin Bihan-Poudec| Advocate for Ethical AI and Workforce Preservation
Preliminary Research on Labor Market Displacement Projections Leveraging Artificial Intelligence:
I received an error message from my ChatGPT account while experiencing “technical difficulties” as I attempted to use the platform to render a PDF document of my research over the past six months on data analytics, proving that the U.S. is experiencing a labor crisis. Upcoming projections by ChatGPT (as seen here) using exponential labor market trends from Q1 and Q2 of this year indicate that if the trend of companies slashing just 10% of their workforce continues, not only among the top 100 U.S. tech companies but also across small to medium-sized businesses in the tech sector, the unemployment rate could soar nationally to 13.4% by April 2025, affecting 22.5 million Americans.
According to a report from Statista.com, in April 2024, the civilian labor force amounted to 167.98 million people in the United States compared to a total population of 341.7 million people. If 22.5 million American workers from a working population of 167.98 million were impacted, this indicates only a 7.46% impact of the workforce. If tools such as Sora and Veo, which could impact the cinematography industry and beyond greatly of 2.74 million workers, were to be publicly released, this would be an equivalent percentage of the total labor market of only 0.61% , underscoring the impact of other industries not mentioned above. This shows how little these technologies could impact the labor market accounting for only 2 specific industries, the cinematography and the tech sector, underscoring IMF Chief’s projections of 60% of the labor market that could be impacted. I conducted a research of how many other types of workers could be included in industries that could experience the greatest impact due to AI and automation implementation and these were the fields:
ChatGPT:
Aside from the cinematography industry, the tech sector, fast-food workers, customer service agents, and the manufacturing chain, several other industries in the U.S. could face significant job displacement due to AI and automation:
Healthcare: AI is increasingly being used for diagnostics, treatment recommendations, and even performing surgeries. Robots and AI systems can analyze medical data faster and more accurately than humans, potentially reducing the need for some healthcare workers such as radiologists, pathologists, and even some types of surgeons.
Retail: Automation in retail can include self-checkout systems, inventory management robots, and automated customer service bots. Large retailers like Amazon are already using robots in warehouses, and brick-and-mortar stores are adopting more self-service options, which can reduce the need for cashiers and stock clerks.
Transportation and Logistics: Autonomous vehicles and drones are being developed and tested for goods delivery and transportation services. Truck drivers, delivery personnel, and taxi/rideshare drivers could see their jobs at risk as these technologies become more reliable and widespread.
Banking and Finance: AI and machine learning algorithms are being used for risk assessment, fraud detection, trading, and customer service (chatbots). This automation can lead to a reduction in jobs for analysts, brokers, and customer service representatives in the financial sector.
Agriculture: AI and robotics are increasingly used in agriculture for tasks such as planting, harvesting, and monitoring crops. Drones and automated machinery can handle many of the labor-intensive tasks traditionally done by farm workers.
Legal Services: AI tools are being used to perform tasks such as legal research, document review, and even drafting legal documents. This automation can reduce the need for paralegals and legal researchers.
Real Estate: AI can streamline various aspects of real estate transactions, including property valuation, market analysis, and even showing properties using virtual tours and AI-driven chatbots, which can reduce the need for some real estate agents and brokers.
Education: AI-driven educational platforms and tools can provide personalized learning experiences, potentially reducing the need for some teaching positions, particularly for tutoring and support roles.
Journalism and Content Creation: AI tools can generate news articles, reports, and even creative content, which can reduce the demand for writers, journalists, and editors.
Construction: Robotics and AI are being developed for tasks such as bricklaying, welding, and site inspection. These technologies can significantly reduce the need for manual labor in the construction industry.
The impact of AI and automation on these industries can vary depending on the pace of technology adoption, regulatory environments, and the ability of the workforce to adapt to new roles that these technologies might create.
Kevin:
How many workers in the United States are working in the industries above as of June 2024?
ChatGPT:
As of June 2024, the following numbers represent the estimated workforce in various industries in the United States that may face significant job displacement due to AI and automation:
Healthcare: Approximately 22.3 million workers.
Retail: Around 15 million workers.
Transportation and Logistics: About 5 million workers.
Banking and Finance: Approximately 6 million workers.
Agriculture: Around 2.6 million workers.
Legal Services: About 1.2 million workers.
Real Estate: Approximately 2 million workers.
Education: Around 8 million workers.
Journalism and Content Creation: About 200,000 workers.
Construction: Approximately 7.5 million workers.
These estimates highlight the potential scale of job displacement across various sectors due to the increasing implementation of AI and automation (BLS.gov) (Census.gov).
Kevin:
If only a conservative amount of the total amount of the workers above were to be replaced by AI and automation, what would that number be?
ChatGPT:
If a conservative estimate of 10% of the total workforce in these industries were to be replaced by AI and automation, the number of workers affected would be approximately 6,980,000.
Kevin:
What is the current amount of unemployed workers in the United States as of May 2024?
ChatGPT:
As of May 2024, the number of unemployed people in the United States is approximately 6.6 million, with an unemployment rate of 4.0%. This figure represents those who are actively seeking work and includes a broad range of demographics across various sectors (Bureau of Labor Statistics) (BLS.gov).
If a conservative estimate of 10% of workers across key industries were to be displaced by AI and automation, approximately 6,980,000 additional workers could be affected. This would significantly increase the number of unemployed individuals, potentially exacerbating the labor crisis.
Kevin:
What would be the percentage increase in unemployment if 2.74 million Americans from the cinematography industry would be added to the current 6.6 million unemployed, plus the 6,980,000 additional workers affected by the industries listed above, assuming that the number of displaced worker due to AI and automation of all other industries would be 0?
ChatGPT:
If 2.74 million Americans from the cinematography industry were added to the current 6.6 million unemployed, plus the 6,980,000 additional workers affected by the industries listed above, the total number of unemployed people would be approximately 16,320,000.
This would represent a percentage increase in unemployment of approximately 147.27%.
Reverse Data Analytics Research Using ChatGPT:
Kevin:
I would like for you act as a mathematician with 35 years of experience, an expert in economy and labor market trends in the United States as well as a researcher and an AI expert in job displacement. Is the following study compelling and does the math and prediction make sense? Provide any adjustments needed to shed light on projections of the unemployed in the US due to the unchecked implementation of artificial intelligence and automation on the American workforce. Provide first a yes or no answer if my research below makes sense and then provide with an analysis and any adjustments needed to provide clearer research results I can post on my website.
ChatGPT:
Yes, the study is compelling, but it requires some adjustments for clearer and more accurate projections. Here is a detailed analysis and adjustments needed:
Analysis
Projections and Methodology:
The projection of a 13.4% unemployment rate in the tech sector by April 2025 assumes a continuous 10% workforce reduction across all tech companies. This exponential trend should be validated with historical data and industry reports.
The calculation of the overall impact of AI and automation on the labor market is based on various industry workforce numbers and conservative estimates of job displacement.
Current Workforce and Unemployment Data:
The data provided for the civilian labor force and the current unemployment figures are accurate as per the latest available reports. However, the projection should be adjusted to reflect realistic industry adoption rates and potential regulatory impacts.
Adjustments Needed
Exponential Trend Validation:
Validate the exponential trend with historical data from previous quarters and years. Analyze if the 10% workforce reduction is a consistent pattern or influenced by specific events.
Broader Industry Impact:
Consider the potential ripple effects on other sectors indirectly affected by the displacement in tech and other directly impacted industries. For example, support services and secondary industries might also experience job losses.
Updated Workforce Data:
Ensure that the workforce data for each industry is up-to-date and cross-referenced with multiple reliable sources like BLS and industry-specific reports.
Adjusting Projections:
Provide a range of projections (e.g., optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic scenarios) to account for varying rates of AI adoption and regulatory responses.
Displacement Percentages:
Instead of a blanket 10% displacement, provide industry-specific displacement percentages based on AI adoption rates and automation feasibility studies.
Clearer Research Results
Updated Projection of Tech Sector Unemployment:
Review historical data to adjust the projection of 13.4% unemployment in the tech sector. Provide context on how this compares to past trends and potential industry shifts.
Overall Labor Market Impact:
Calculate the total potential job displacement across all identified industries with updated workforce numbers and adjusted displacement rates.
Impact on Current Unemployment:
With the adjusted projections, re-calculate the potential increase in unemployment if AI and automation displace workers in the identified industries.
Detailed Adjusted Projections
Revised Workforce Numbers and Displacement:
Healthcare: 22.3 million workers (10% displaced: 2.23 million)
Retail: 15 million workers (10% displaced: 1.5 million)
Transportation and Logistics: 5 million workers (10% displaced: 0.5 million)
Banking and Finance: 6 million workers (10% displaced: 0.6 million)
Agriculture: 2.6 million workers (10% displaced: 0.26 million)
Legal Services: 1.2 million workers (10% displaced: 0.12 million)
Real Estate: 2 million workers (10% displaced: 0.2 million)
Education: 8 million workers (10% displaced: 0.8 million)
Journalism and Content Creation: 200,000 workers (10% displaced: 0.02 million)
Construction: 7.5 million workers (10% displaced: 0.75 million)
Total Potential Displacement:
Total displaced: 6,980,000 workers (conservative estimate)
Impact on Current Unemployment:
Current unemployed: 6.6 million
Added displaced workers: 6,980,000
Total unemployed: 13.58 million
Percentage Increase in Unemployment:
New unemployment rate: 13.58 million167.98 million≈8.1%167.98 million13.58 million≈8.1%
Percentage increase: 8.1%−4%4%×100%≈102.5%4%8.1%−4%×100%≈102.5%
By using more precise data and realistic projections, the analysis shows a significant increase in unemployment due to AI and automation. However, presenting a range of scenarios and emphasizing the need for adaptive policies and workforce retraining can provide a balanced perspective on the potential impact.
Kevin:
Provide a range of scenarios assuming the adaptive policies and workforce retraining will be non-existent in the next 12 months
Given the assumption that adaptive policies and workforce retraining will be non-existent in the next 12 months, we can present a range of scenarios based on varying rates of AI and automation adoption across different industries. Here are three scenarios: optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic.
Optimistic Scenario
Assumptions:
AI adoption and automation impact a smaller percentage of the workforce.
Some industries are slower to adopt AI and automation.
Displacement rate: 5%
Projected Displacement:
Healthcare: 1.115 million (5% of 22.3 million)
Retail: 0.75 million (5% of 15 million)
Transportation and Logistics: 0.25 million (5% of 5 million)
Banking and Finance: 0.3 million (5% of 6 million)
Agriculture: 0.13 million (5% of 2.6 million)
Legal Services: 0.06 million (5% of 1.2 million)
Real Estate: 0.1 million (5% of 2 million)
Education: 0.4 million (5% of 8 million)
Journalism and Content Creation: 0.01 million (5% of 200,000)
Construction: 0.375 million (5% of 7.5 million)
Total Displacement:
Total: 3.49 million workers
Impact on Current Unemployment:
Current unemployed: 6.6 million
Added displaced workers: 3.49 million
Total unemployed: 10.09 million
New Unemployment Rate:
New unemployment rate: 10.09 million167.98 million≈6.0%167.98 million10.09 million≈6.0%
Percentage Increase:
Percentage increase: 6.0%−4%4%×100%≈50%4%6.0%−4%×100%≈50%
Moderate Scenario
Assumptions:
AI adoption and automation impact a moderate percentage of the workforce.
Displacement rate: 10% (baseline scenario)
Projected Displacement:
Healthcare: 2.23 million (10% of 22.3 million)
Retail: 1.5 million (10% of 15 million)
Transportation and Logistics: 0.5 million (10% of 5 million)
Banking and Finance: 0.6 million (10% of 6 million)
Agriculture: 0.26 million (10% of 2.6 million)
Legal Services: 0.12 million (10% of 1.2 million)
Real Estate: 0.2 million (10% of 2 million)
Education: 0.8 million (10% of 8 million)
Journalism and Content Creation: 0.02 million (10% of 200,000)
Construction: 0.75 million (10% of 7.5 million)
Total Displacement:
Total: 6.98 million workers
Impact on Current Unemployment:
Current unemployed: 6.6 million
Added displaced workers: 6.98 million
Total unemployed: 13.58 million
New Unemployment Rate:
New unemployment rate: 13.58 million167.98 million≈8.1%167.98 million13.58 million≈8.1%
Percentage Increase:
Percentage increase: 8.1%−4%4%×100%≈102.5%4%8.1%−4%×100%≈102.5%
Pessimistic Scenario
Assumptions:
AI adoption and automation impact a higher percentage of the workforce.
Displacement rate: 15%
Projected Displacement:
Healthcare: 3.345 million (15% of 22.3 million)
Retail: 2.25 million (15% of 15 million)
Transportation and Logistics: 0.75 million (15% of 5 million)
Banking and Finance: 0.9 million (15% of 6 million)
Agriculture: 0.39 million (15% of 2.6 million)
Legal Services: 0.18 million (15% of 1.2 million)
Real Estate: 0.3 million (15% of 2 million)
Education: 1.2 million (15% of 8 million)
Journalism and Content Creation: 0.03 million (15% of 200,000)
Construction: 1.125 million (15% of 7.5 million)
Total Displacement:
Total: 10.47 million workers
Impact on Current Unemployment:
Current unemployed: 6.6 million
Added displaced workers: 10.47 million
Total unemployed: 17.07 million
New Unemployment Rate:
New unemployment rate: 17.07 million167.98 million≈10.2%167.98 million17.07 million≈10.2%
Percentage Increase:
Percentage increase: 10.2%−4%4%×100%≈155%4%10.2%−4%×100%≈155%
It is important to note that the figures above do not include the number of currently unemployed Americans, which is 6.6 million people as of June 7th, 2024, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Summary of Scenarios
Optimistic Scenario:
New Unemployment Rate: 6.0%
Percentage Increase: 50%
Moderate Scenario:
New Unemployment Rate: 8.1%
Percentage Increase: 102.5%
Pessimistic Scenario:
New Unemployment Rate: 10.2%
Percentage Increase: 155%
These scenarios provide a range of potential outcomes based on varying levels of AI and automation adoption without adaptive policies and workforce retraining. Presenting these scenarios can help highlight the urgency of implementing measures to mitigate the impact of AI and automation on the labor market.
Kevin:
Provide an analysis of the results in a conclusion paragraph alarming that even the optimistic scenario would be catastrophic
Conclusion
The analysis of potential job displacement due to AI and automation across various industries in the United States presents a dire outlook, even under the most optimistic scenario. If no adaptive policies or workforce retraining programs are implemented within the next 12 months, the unemployment rate could rise significantly, exacerbating the current labor crisis. In the optimistic scenario, with a conservative displacement rate of 5%, the unemployment rate could increase to 6.0%, representing a 50% rise from current levels. The moderate scenario, with a 10% displacement rate, forecasts an unemployment rate of 8.1%, more than doubling the current rate and resulting in a 102.5% increase. The pessimistic scenario, assuming a 15% displacement rate, predicts a catastrophic unemployment rate of 10.2%, marking a 155% surge.
These projections underscore the urgency for immediate action to mitigate the impact of AI and automation on the workforce.
Without intervention, even the optimistic scenario would result in severe economic and social consequences, affecting millions of American workers and their families. This alarming trend highlights the critical need for robust policies and programs to support workers in transitioning to new roles and industries, ensuring that the benefits of technological advancements do not come at the expense of widespread job loss and economic instability.
#DemandEthicalAI #VoiceForChange
