Is the End of Hollywood Upon Us because of AI?
In an era where technological advancements rapidly change the dynamics of industries, the cinematography and content creation sectors are at risk of facing a significant upheaval.
Is Hollywood Prepared for AI-Generated Films?
Hollywood and the entertainment industry are still grappling with how to address the cost and workforce implications of AI-generated content. Currently, producing a blockbuster film costs millions of dollars, with much of that going toward labor—highly skilled professionals who spend months or even years on a single project. But with AI, those costs could be reduced to a mere subscription fee, as platforms like Sora or again Movie Gen, announced today by Meta, allow anyone to generate high-quality, realistic movie trailers, and even entire movies likely in the next few moths to a year, for a fraction of the cost.
AI can now replicate cinematography, special effects, sound design, and even actor performances. As a result, entire production teams, who have spent decades honing their craft, are at risk of being replaced by algorithms.
California Governor Gavin Newsom has signed a series of artificial intelligence-related bills aimed at addressing growing concerns, particularly in Hollywood. One of the bills, AB 459, makes it illegal for studios to digitally recreate actors without their consent. This move addresses concerns about the unauthorized use of real actors’ likenesses through AI, which was a key issue during the 2023 actors' strike. However, this bill does not address the use of AI-generated characters that aren't based on real humans or characters from animated films, leaving a loophole that could still impact the industry.
The series of bills also includes regulations targeting AI deepfakes in elections, reflecting broader concerns about AI's potential to disrupt both political processes and creative industries. Despite these legislative steps, challenges remain as AI continues to evolve and present new ethical and legal dilemmas.
The Economic Impact
According to Statistca.com, as of January 2024, around 441,700 people were employed in the motion picture and sound recording industries in the U.S.. These individuals, spanning pre-production, production, and post-production roles, represent just a fraction of those whose livelihoods depend on video creation, marketing, advertising, and entertainment.
According to my ChatGPT research which can be found here, the total number of American workers across industries that rely on video content creation exceeds 2.7 million jobs, representing over $242 billion in wages annually. The unchecked adoption of AI in these industries threatens to displace millions of these workers. For example, the sameSoratechnology, which can generate a one-minute trailer for $745, could theoretically recreate an entire film for less than $100,000—a fraction of the cost of traditional filmmaking.
Where Are the Boundaries?
The bigger question is: Are there any boundaries in place to regulate how much AI technology can be used to replace manual labor in film production and related industries? Currently, no major regulations limit AI's application in these sectors. Without such boundaries, we risk seeing an overreliance on AI, exacerbating job losses and contributing to rising unemployment rates in industries that require creativity and human expertise.
My Research on AI's Impact on the Labor Market
Based on my research and data analytics findings leveraging artificial intelligence actually, if AI technologies like Sora continue to evolve without regulation, millions of jobs across industries will be at risk. The creative industry alone could face massive displacement, as outlined in my previous research, due to the quick affordable adoption of AI in video production, marketing, and more. The labor market could experience a "tsunami" effect—displacing 40% of global jobs, as warned by the IMF.
The International Monetary Fund’s Warning
Fortune.com: AI will hit the labor market like a, quote, “tsunami,” IMF chief warns. Quote: “We have very little time to get people ready for it.”
Business Insider: AI will affect about 40% of global jobs: IMF
IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva says AI will impact roughly 40% of global employment.
She expects advanced economies to be more affected than emerging markets and developing economies.
"In most scenarios, AI will likely worsen overall inequality," she wrote in a blog post.
France24.com: AI to impact 60% of advanced economy jobs, says IMF chief
Artificial intelligence (AI) will impact 60 percent of jobs in advanced economies, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told AFP on January 15th 2024, shortly before departing for the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
The International Monetary Fund’s Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, warned us back in January 2024 that artificial intelligence (AI) is set to hit the labor market "like a tsunami," leaving very little time for companies and workers to prepare. With AI tools likeSora, which can generate realistic movie trailers or even entire films at a fraction of the cost, we must confront the profound economic implications of such technologies, especially within Hollywood and related industries.
My comments on social media about Meta’s latest release of its text-to-video AI tool perfectly summarize how I’ve felt over the past year as a displaced tech worker, unable to reenter the saturated job market due to companies streamlining operations with AI.
Caption: Animated Movies + Cheap AI Generated Content = Job Loss.
Caption: Yet another text-to-video AI tool was released today. @Meta, are you concerned about what this will do to the workforce? Asking for a friend. What’s Mark Zuckerberg up to again? Oh yeah… New York Post headlines: Inside plans for Mark Zuckerberg’s massive $260 million bunker on a secluded Hawaiian island.
Possible Solutions: Regulation and Responsible Use of AI
The solution lies in proactive measures from government and industry leaders. A few potential steps include:
Regulating AI Development: Governments must regulate AI technologies to ensure they complement, rather than replace, human jobs. This can be done through policies that limit the amount of content AI can generate in industries that heavily depend on human labor.
Workforce Upskilling: Companies should invest in reskilling their workforce, providing employees with the tools and knowledge needed to thrive alongside AI rather than be displaced by it.
Setting Limits on AI Use in Creative Industries: The government could introduce caps on how much AI can replace human labor in fields like movie production, ensuring that skilled workers are still in demand.
Introducing AI Taxes: Large corporations leveraging AI at the expense of human labor could face higher taxes, with the revenue generated being used to fund upskilling programs and social safety nets for displaced workers.
We stand at a critical juncture. Hollywood, advertising agencies, and content creation sectors must begin the conversation about how to implement AI responsibly. We cannot wait for the "tsunami" to hit and leave millions jobless. Now is the time to regulate AI use and preserve the livelihood of millions of skilled workers.
Summary of Solutions:
Government regulation on AI-generated content
Industry-wide limits on AI’s role in replacing manual labor
Taxes on AI implementation to fund workforce development
Investing in upskilling and reskilling programs
By taking these steps, we can ensure that the future of content creation includes both humans and AI, working together to drive innovation without compromising livelihoods.
The question remains: Will the U.S. government step up and implement rules to protect workers' rights in the face of unprecedented technological advancements? President Joe Biden, is there an AI warning government hotline besides 911? Also asking for a friend.
